After surviving three hours in a Party $1 MTT, I got QJo UTG. My stack is 37000 and the blinds are 1500/3000 with antes of 75 (I think it was), so my M is 7. However, on the next hand, the blinds will increase to 2000/4000 with antes 100 (again, as far as I remember), and I was going to be the big blind, so my M was going to drop to about 4.7.
I decide to go all-in and get called by a huge stack with AJ, and lose. I have been wondering whether it was the right move to make. Harrington gives an example with KQo but there the M was already down to 3.5, so the situation was more desperate and the cards were better. What do you think?
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2 comments:
Hi,
So your example is about when you can't afford to wait for better cards and make the best of the cards you currently have.
I'm wondering what your odds where considering your position on the table. And what are the odds you would be drained by the blinds before getting better cards.
Personally I think you overestimated your odds. Does anyone know what the odds were?
Nard
Well, several odds are important here:
- the odds that everyone folds to my all-in bet (hard to quantify)
- my winning odds against a caller
- odds that I will get better cards "soon" (and how soon is soon enough?)
My winning odds if I get called are as follows:
- horrible against AA - JJ (but these holdings are very unlikely)
- about 50% against TT and lower
- something like 30% against two overcards
Overall, my chances are reasonable, I think. However I may have underestimated the odds of getting the same or a better hand soon, when I would also be in better position.
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