Tremble before me

Could also be titled: This Is Not a Photoshop (of course, you can easily verify the above picture by going to www.sharkscope.com and looking for Rob1606 at Full Tilt)

or: I Have No Further Poker Goals Now

or: My Best Month Ever

Note also the "Form" column... This classification is due to the following sequence:

I never expected to achieve either "Shark" status or "Super Hot". To achieve both at the same time is something very special. My bankroll at Full Tilt is now only $24 shy of $1000, meaning that I have multiplied my initial deposit almost by 20 now...

$150 in 40 minutes

Probably my best result per minute ever: I just won two simultaneous $22 turbo SNGs at Full Tilt.

The $700 that I won in a Steps game does not count of course; I first had to win 5 other Steps games to even be allowed to play that game. And all my tournament cashes cost a couple of hours before I was eliminated (or won :-) ).

This makes things like losing with a full house to a flopped straight flush (!) bearable... My bankroll at FTP is now $865, after depositing $50. $65 of this is due to bonuses that I cleared.

No Limit Holdem Tournament
$22 + $2 Sit & Go (Turbo)
7 players
Converted at weaktight.com


Stacks:

UTG		(1175)
UTG+1		(1700)
MP		(2305)
CO		(1155)
BTN		(3265)
Hero		(2350)
BB		(1550)

Blinds: 50/100

Pre-flop: (150, 7 players) Hero is SB

1 fold, UTG+1 calls 100, 2 folds, BTN calls 100, Hero calls 50 (standard completion as SB after two callers), BB checks

Flop: (400, 4 players)
Hero bets 300 (a good flop for me obviously, but I do need to protect my hand immediately against possible straight and flush draws, so I bet out strongly, 3/4 of the pot), 1 folds, UTG+1 calls 300 (after some thought, or so it seemed. In fact, my opponent was in shock), 1 folds

Turn: (1000, 2 players)
Hero goes all-in 1950 (after a completely harmless card on the turn, I definitely want to win this pot right now. My opponent thought for a long time, or so I thought. I became convinced that he had a diamond, but in fact he was not thinking at all but simply typing in the chatbox...), UTG+1 says "my best flop ever in 3 years", UTG+1 calls 1300 (and then I saw what he actually had)

River: (4259, 2 players) (so me making a full house is irrelevant here--that does not often happen...)

Final Pot: 3600
UTG+1 shows:
Hero shows:

UTG+1 wins 3600 with a straight flush, King high ( won +1900 )
BB lost -100
BTN lost -100
Hero lost -1700 with a full house, Kings full of nines

A $50 tournament

I know I talked about playing a $100 tourney, but this one happened to be starting, with not too many players (225) so I decided to jump in. I can report that there is definitely a difference in skill level noticeable. For one thing, people simply get eliminated much slower. This is also due to the excellent blind structure at this buyin: 12 minutes per level! After one hour, only slightly more than half the contestants were gone, as opposed to two thirds at lower buyins.

I am not very happy with the way that I played. I was seated immediately to the left of a complete idiot who could not lay any hand down. Unfortunately, I did not manage to hit any of my draws against him, so I ended up giving him quite a few chips.

Remarkably, it seemed that I was not the only one who was playing above their level. I checked all my tablemates at Sharkscope and the highest average stake that I found was $25 or so. There were many people that on average play for less than $10. Apparently many of these people cannot resist taking excursions to higher buyins--like me I guess, but at least I made sure that I first earned $500 before risking $50...


FTP $50, 2nd hour.

1205 chips, started with 2000 :-(
Am in 100th position out of 105 remaining. Still, due to the excellent structure, the blinds are now 40/80 so my M is still 10. No need to give up just yet... I am not even the shortest stack at my table! One player has 670.

120 out of 225 players left in the 1st hour, this is slightly less than would happen in a $5 tournament (but it is still 53%, compared to 67% in lower buyins).

AA just got cracked by 86s (quad 6s!) so now I am even the 3rd lowest stack at the table.

The same player almost lost with KK against 96s on the very next hand, due to two sixes on the board, but spiked a K on the river to make a full house.

Just missed my chance to make a full house when I check-folded 82 on a 432 flop, all clubs. Turn 2, river 8... I would have beaten a flopped flush.

Try to steal with K9o in CO. Success! Back to 1205.

AK UTG. Raise to 240 = 3BB. One caller. Miss ragged flop, push anyway. She folds, phew.... 1485!

Sick sick sick. Lost to a complete idiot to my right, who has been annoying me for the past hour. He is SO stupid, cannot lay down anything. He made his flush on the river and bet the pot...

Down to 1035, blinds 50/100, M=7. 93rd out of 96 remaining.

Push KJo in 2nd pos. No callers! 1185. 80th out of 88 remaining.

Push 33 as BB after 4 limpers. Two callers!! QQ and 66... Out in 87th place.

PS: by playing this game, I released a $25 refer-a-friend bonus as well as $5 of my deposit bonus. I also played a $11-turbo SNG (I LOVE these FTP turbo games) simultaneously with this tournament, finishing 2nd, so I made a net profit of $17.70 there. So overall, losing this $55 game has cost me only $7.30 :-)

Disenchantment

First a nice graph. Can you tell when things started looking up for me at Full Tilt?

Nevertheless, again after being away from poker for a week or so, I notice that the game bores me. I still have the plan to play some $100 tourney, but I think I will retire from online poker when I move (in a month or so).

I did play some live poker last week, for the first time ever. It was quite interesting. We played some $5 SNG's. I did not manage to win any money, but it was not so easy because we were playing winner takes all with 6 players. The first game I lost heads up when I called an all-in on the first heads-up hand with A2 against what turned out to be 66. My opponent had been bluffing throughout, but even bluffers get good hands sometimes! But it was a bad call.

In the second game I lost with 77 against AK held by the same bluffer as before. Well, what can you do.

But it was quite an experience to play live poker, it really is a whole new world. I realized later that I was looking at the cards on the table when I had nothing and was waiting to check/fold, and was looking at my opponents when I had a set. This would be something to work on before the next game :-) Of course you need to pretend to care about every hand as long as you still have cards! I did not look enough at my opponents anyway. So I also do not know whether they exhibited the same behavior.

Times twelve

Just a quick note before I turn in: in the last month, I managed to turn a $50 deposit at Full Tilt into $600. The last $100 or so was earned mostly by playing $11 turbo SNGs. I never used to be very good at these, but the structure at FTP is much more suitable for playing turbo games. The games still last fairly long: it typically takes 35-40 minutes to win one.

I am planning to play in some really big tournament, like a buyin of $100 or so. Just to see what it's like...

A thought about odds

PokerOffice displays your odds to improve in green if they are better than your pot odds, indicating that you should call in this case.

This is, of course, nonsense.

To be precise, it only holds in one specific case:

• your opponent has a made hand
• you have nothing (well, a draw)
• if you do not improve, you lose the hand
• if you do improve, you are guaranteed to win

I guess I was somewhat aware of this already, but I think it is important to write this down. I was given a very clear example of this situation in my latest game: I had 33 and I limped (possibly called a minraise). The flop was 542, and it got checked round to me. I bet out for two thirds of the pot or so, and I got checkraised all-in.

At this point I looked at my odds in PokerOffice. I was not happy about the situation, but the combined odds of making trips and making my straight (1.6:1) were slightly better than the pot odds I was being offered (1.8:1), so I called.

My opponent flipped over 9-8 offsuit for a total bluff. I had not even considered that I might be ahead... I should have though, it was (somewhat) reasonable that he might have AK or something, and figured he had showdown value.


In general of course, deciding whether or not to call should be based on much more than just comparing two numbers (pot odds and your odds to improve).

• Your opponent may improve. More generally, you might improve but still lose. For example, in the case above, he might have had an Ace, so that a 3 on the turn or river would give me trips but still kill me.
• You may have implied odds. When you are on a flush draw, you can call against the odds (up to a point!) in the hope that your opponent will put in more money after you make your flush.

The game really is not that simple!

Lies

Last week, I referred you to the MTT series by Bond18. This is perhaps the comment that most struck me from his series. He wrote a part about lies that you have been told in the past. Here is Lie #1:

“You can find a better spot”: What? What the fuck? Listen, any spot that’s good, by which I mean ANY SPOT THAT IS +EV/+cEV is a spot you should take. Now, are there occasionally spots that are +cEV but you should fold because they're –EV? Yes. An obvious example is folding AA in a satellite where you have a seat guaranteed. Want a better example than something this simple? Okay here’s one:

I recently played a live 3k event in Melbourne with ~440 entrants. The structure was very deep, very slow and had high antes. 40% of the field was freeroll qualifiers and probably less than dozen players in the whole field were actually good tournament players. If I was BB the very first hand with a 20k bank at 50/100 with 22, and it folds to the SB who shoves his whole 20k then flips up AKs, I would fold. However, it really does take an example that extreme to make me consider passing up a +cEV spot. SO STOP DOING IT!

After I read this, I started accepting coinflips early in SNGs. E.g. call with AK if you raise and somebody pushes. This is a call that clearly has a positive expectation: you get good odds against almost any pair, and may also be up against a bluff or a hand like AQ/KQ.

I will report on how I like this after a while. I never did like laying down these coinflips, and I am glad to have gotten an excuse for taking them. Of course it will lead to some early eliminations, but poker is and remains a long term game, and the long term profit is what I should be optimizing.

Good luck at the tables

PS: Bond18 basically repeats his point in Lie #3:

“I didn’t want to risk it on a coin flip.” This has got to be one of the most common. Here’s the simple truth with most probable coin flip situations: at the point you’re considering folding knowing you’re likely in a coin flip, there’s already probably way too much money in the pot to ever fold. If you raise AQo 3X and a guy shoves 15-20X, and you figure his range is AJ+/66+ (You’re about 43.5% against his pretty tight, never stealing range, and still basically flipping) you ARE NOT folding. There’s nothing wrong with getting it in on a flip as long as it’s a +EV one, which most are, especially once antes kick in.

The difference between $230 and $0

I just won ANOTHER MTT; this time it was a 90-man SNG at Full Tilt. The hand below occurred on the bubble (10 players left on two tables).

No Limit Holdem Tournament
$10 + $1 KO Sit & Go
5 players
Converted at weaktight.com


Stacks:

UTG		(19775)
Hero		(16765)
BTN		(22930)
SB		(18791)
BB		(19448)

Blinds: 800/1600 Ante 200

Pre-flop: (3400, 5 players) Hero is CO

1 fold, Hero calls 1600 (definitely limping here), 1 fold, SB calls 800, BB checks

Flop: (6800, 3 players) (well, not much can go wrong on this flop!)
SB checks, BB goes all-in 17648 (top pair I guess), Hero calls 14965, SB folds

Turn: (39663, 2 players) (At this point I had seen my opponent's hand: 22. I could not believe my luck. I was thinking that I was out, unless...)

River: (39663, 2 players)

Final Pot: 35730
BB shows:
Hero shows:

BB wins 2683 ( lost -16565 ) with three of a kind, twos
Hero wins 35730 ( won +19165 ) with a straight, five high
SB lost -1600
-------------------------------------------------------------
FTP $10 90-man SNG, 2nd hour

Stack 10k = exactly average.
Blinds 250/500, antes 50, round costs 1200, M=8.

This is a knockout-tournament: each person that you eliminate earns you $2. However, I did not knock anyone out so far. 25 remain, top 9 gets paid. 12th position.

Q3 as BB, check top pair on flop, bet turn K, he folds, phew. 10.8k.

Round now costs 1400, M=7. 20 left.

Raise with A6o in MP. Short SB pushes, gives me odds of 3:1, I win the race (he had 33). My first knockout bonus! And more importantly, my stack is now 16k, M=11.

18 players left. 9 more to go... I am 7th.

Eliminate another player with 99 vs A6 (I make a full house!). Steal with A9 OTB. Stack now 20k! But round now costs 2250 (with 6 players at the table), so my M is 9.

I am starting to like these Full Tilt turbo tournaments... People seem to feel pressured to make bad decisions even sooner.

I am now in 7th position. Get a free round as BB! Nice, I had 5-3.

Round now costs 2700, M=7.5... 12 players left. 11, hand for hand play starts! 10.

Round now costs 3400... M=5. Stack 17k. Shortest stack has 11k. Darn, now 18k.

AA..Call. BB has 22, flops a 2, pushes, I call, I get a runner-runner straight.... 35k!

AJ as BB. Eliminate same opp with 66, flop AKA...

40k! 3rd position! 8 left now, so I get $21. Nice payouts start at top 4 ($80). Should outlive a few players here...

AQ in 2nd pos., raise to 3BB, all fold. 44k. Round costs 5k now! M=9.

Win HU vs BB, 44.6k. 7 left, payout $28.

QQ in 2nd pos, reraise after UTG raises. He calls, folds to my pot-sized push on flop T88. Stack 61k, oh yeah. But a round now costs nearly 6k, still OK: my M=10!

I am in 2nd position! Top stack is 100k.

Raise AJo in CO. BB calls, folds to my c-bet on low flop. 66k. BB was top stack by the way, he now has 91k.

Limp KT UTG, flop AKx, BB folds to my minbet. 67k after paying the blinds. Another player was eliminated meanwhile, so I get $43. Steal with A4: 73k.

Top stack loses another hand, now he only has 75k!

Limp KJo, no luck this time. 66k after paying BB.

KK as SB... Button pushes 44! 90k! Call a short push with AJ: win again!! 111k! Only four players left!

33 as SB. Fold to raise - he had KK! And gets beaten by 33!

I am chip leader with almost twice the stack of nr.2. Am already assured of $80.
First place is $230.

Raise J9o UTG. Button pushes, I fold. Now he has a similar stack to mine.

Time to take it a bit slower maybe... Although, round now costs 8k, M=10.

Lose a "small" pot, stack now 71k.

Call with QQ. Button pushes again, I call. And win. Payout $100, third place assured.

Shortest stack has 33k, other two stacks are 115k - 110k (me).

93k.

78k.

67k.

Round costs 10k.

64k. Finally, get a free round.

Steal as SB and as button: 80k!

Bottom stack has 40k. Not anymore, he's out. Heads up with 3:1 chip deficit.

Win showdown: I lead! Opponent pushed 77 on Jxx flop, I had a J...

165k.

199k.

221k.

I win.

Biggest hand of the night

I actually won more chips on several other hands, but this was definitely the most important hand of the night. Thanks to this hand, I had a relatively straightforward path to the payouts...

No Limit Holdem Tournament
$10 + $1 Tournament
8 players
Converted at weaktight.com


Stacks:

UTG		(2850)
UTG+1		(5015)
MP1		(6080)
MP2		(5455)
CO		(12235)
BTN		(3980)
Hero		(6960)
BB		(5505)

Blinds: 250/500 Ante 50

Pre-flop: (1150, 8 players) Hero is SB

UTG goes all-in 2800, 3 folds, CO goes all-in 12185, BTN calls 3930, Hero says "here goes nothing....", Hero calls 6660, 1 fold, CO says "omg blah"

Flop: (27131, 4 players)

Turn: (27136, 4 players)
CO says "one outer"

River: (27141, 4 players)
CO says "blah"

Final Pot: 21450
BTN shows:
Hero shows:
UTG shows:
CO shows:

Hero wins 21450 ( won +14540 )
CO wins 5275 ( lost -6910 )
BTN lost -3930
UTG lost -2800

That MTT that I won

I did not have that much time, so I registered for a turbo tournament. Actually, I registered for two turbo tournaments simultaneously :-) One at Pacific, a heads up tournament, and one at Full Tilt. At Full Tilt, turbo means 5 minutes per level, and given the very slow level increase, it is still not that fast. This is where I earned $165 (see last post).

At Pacific however, the blinds increased every 3 minutes. Still, I decided to join since I had cashed in several of these heads up tournaments before. Unfortunately, I don't have a record of my play, since PokerOffice does not work with the new interface that Pacific asked me to try out.

As I wrote right away, I lucked out a couple of times, but I also had some opponents that tried really very poorly timed bluffs (I guess that also falls under the heading of "luck"). I went through five or six opponents during the game. The first match lasted quite a while, the penultimate one was very long, and the last match lasted all of two hands!

I think the match two matches before the end was also quite long. I remember checking whether I had already made the money. Several times, I was on the verge of going out.

The last match started when there were 6 players left. And it in fact lasted so long, that when it was over, there were only 3 players left! That meant that I had to wait for the other two players to finish their match before I could play again. At first I thought this put me at a disadvantage (though it was of course nice to automatically reach 2nd place without playing any hands in the meantime...), but then I realized that the increasing blinds were to my advantage here.

The longer that their match lasted, the less severe my disadvantage would be! I could see that whoever won was going to have about three times as many chips as I had. However, since the blinds were now getting close to something like 1/4 or more of my stack, this meant that the longer their match took, the fewer hands I would have to win afterwards to get back to an even footing.

And in fact, when we were finally heads up, my opponent pushed on the very first hand, and I held TT... He had a shitty hand, I forget what it was, and I won the race. This immediately put me into the lead! And what's more, on the next hand he pushed as well. This time I had K9, and given the huge blinds by now, I was getting good odds to call. I got a K on the turn or the river.

It was a very strange feeling to see those cards, see the money slide to my direction, and know that I won the game; that there were going to be no further hands to play. But very nice too...