Tuesday, April 24, 2007

School of hard knocks?

You know what, maybe it is not such a great idea to switch to a higher level immediately after a big win, after all... It seems that the combination of better opposition and (let us say) "optimistic" play does not work out so great for my bankroll.

The first $5 SNG actually started out OK, after 25 games I had a stack of 1500 (you start with 1200). Then I found 66 as SB, and the player two places before me went allin for 365 after there had been one caller. I folded without thinking about it much, and the flop came (of course) 6xx. The allin guy only had A4. Now, I had to put in 340 to win a pot of 490. I suppose that easily justifies a call (10% bluffing, 55% times 60% = 32% two high cards, 15% times 80% = 12% lower pair than mine, total odds 52% so I am even a slight favorite here). This was too bad, since this turned out to be my last good chance in a while. (Though I did manage to steal the blinds on the very next hand with 95.) It seems I was unwilling to try anything with some "reasonable" hands right after this (JTo, A8) but on the other hand there was an aggressive player behind me who made it difficult to try steals. When I finally did raise with QT, I got raised by the short stack who went allin for 500 and beat me with A3. That put me down to 850. A few hands later I managed to get lucky with KJ vs 22, got a straight on the river.

Then I made an idiot move, I guess. As BB I had A6, all players fold, the SB raises to 400. I decide not to believe him and go allin. He has A9...

In the next SNG, I called with KT in middle position and was fortunate enough to have everyone after me fold up to the blinds. Pot 90, flop A99, all check and I raise 60. One caller, who after the turn J bets ... 20? Unfortunately I had not yet reached volume II of Harrington at this point, so I did not realize that I simply had to raise strongly here. I just called and did this again to his 20 bet on the river. At least I could have raised there... He had K2 so we shared the pot.

Then the last hand. My stack was 1000. With AJh as SB, I raised to 150 (level 25/50) after one caller. The SB and OC called, flop KJT, two spades. With an inside straight draw and medium pair, I raised 200. I got one caller and no luck on the turn. I checked and then he bet 150. My stack was down to 640 by now. This is where I should have definitely let it go, for some reason I thought that I got reasonable pot odds. But no, and then to complete this I raised his river bet allin. Of course he had a K.

In the third game, I dutifully folded AJs after a raise in front of me. It turns out he had A6 and the guy who called him had A9, so I would have won this game (with some luck though: there was AQ9 on the flop, but a Q on the river counterfeited the 9). Later I called with 99 after there had been a raise (to 100, level 25/50) and a call in front of me. A very bad idea, as my stack was already down to 900.

Down to 500 as BB (level 50/100), I found KQ. There was only one caller (let's call him X) in front of me, so I went allin and got called by 67o (naturally). This hand I managed to beat somehow. Then on the next hand, X called again (he acted before me) and I had JJ as SB. I decided to go allin to see if he would join me again. I was basically expecting his call and indeed, I got it. This time he had T9s! On the hand after that, OTB with AT, I could not resist going allin again after everybody folded in front of me. X, now down to 350 from 2300 two hands ago, called me again as BB, but this time unfortunately with AJ. Still, even after this I was up to 2170, so things were looking up.

And then it happened. I got QQ, a hand that has brought me a lot of grief in the past. I did a minraise to 300 and got two callers, T8 (X) and Jc9h (BB). Flop 78Tc. X bet 300 (from a stack of 600) with his two pair. BB went allin for 3300 with his straight. I called with my flush draw (I had Qc) and overpair. Now, immediately after this hand, and when I started to compose this post, I was sure that this had been a complete idiot's move, especially when I saw that BB had a made straight (I was not expecting that and did not think for very long before calling). But looking at it now in PokerOffice, I see that I had to put in 1870 (my stack) to win a pot of 3370 (since X called, of course). So my odds are not even that horrible, even considering that only the flush would win for me and that I have only 7 outs. Why only 7, do you ask? Well, 5 clubs are accounted for, and the nine of clubs is no good to me (look at the flop and BB).

Unfortunately, 9c turned out to be the river card.

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