Wednesday, August 8, 2007

Beware of flopped sets

This time I played it correctly... This was the second hand of this game. Fortunately it was "only" a $10 SNG.

Blinds: t10/t20
10 players

Stack sizes:
UTG: t1200
UTG+1: t1180
UTG+2: t900
MP1: t1020

Hero: t1200
MP3: t1200
CO: t1180
Button: t1180
SB: t1740
BB: t1200

Pre-flop: (10 players) Hero is MP2 with 6♦ 6♠

2 folds, UTG+2 calls t20 (pot was t30),
MP1 calls t20 (pot was t50),
Hero calls t20
(pot was t70), (let's see a cheap flop)
MP3 calls t20 (pot was t90),
CO calls t20 (pot was t110),
Button folds,
SB calls t10 (pot was t130),
BB checks.

Flop: 6♣ 9♣ Q♦ (t140, 7 players) (very nice)

SB checks, BB checks, UTG+2 checks, MP1 checks,
Hero bets t60
(let's see how much I can make on this hand. Actually I am not betting enough here because there is a flush draw on the board, and there are too many opponents),
MP3 calls t60 (pot was t200),
CO raises all-in t1160 (great. Probably some idiot with a flush draw),
4 folds
,
Hero calls all-in t1120 (not folding my set here)
,
MP3 calls all-in t1120 (erm. What??)
.

Turn: 5♦ (t3640, 0 player + 3 all-in - Main pot: t3620, Sidepot 1: t40)

River: 7♥ (t3640, 0 player + 3 all-in - Main pot: t3620, Sidepot 1: t40)

Results:
Final pot: t3640
Hero shows 6d 6s
MP3 shows Qs Qh (lovely. Just lovely)
CO shows 6h 9h (still an idiot, but he actually did have a hand)

Afterwards I played two $22 games. I bubbled out of the first one when everyone refused to call my all-ins until the bubble, at which point I only had about 1200 and the others all about 3000 or more. Now somebody did call my all-in and that was it.

In the second one, I managed to reach yet another second place. This time my position as the heads-up phase started was quite good, and I survived for quite some time although I never got any really good hands. I had gotten QQ on the final hand of the 3-player phase, enabling me to eliminate the nr.3 when he went all-in and all I had to do was go all-in over the top.

But on the next 16 hands, I got nothing suitable. Nevertheless I went all-in preflop several times, but never got called. When we played a hand, he would inevitably show down the better hand, it was very frustrating. He would get hands like KJ or make his flush on the river, while I was facing hands like a pair of 2s with 4 overcards on the table. Also he would never fold to my post-flop bets, making life extremely difficult for me.

Still, I should remember that I have no cause to complain! The important thing is that I am not losing money at this new level. My ROI has dropped to 36% but that is still great (of course it does not mean anything over only 8 games).

I started playing $5 games (again) on April 22nd. I started experimenting with the $10 games on May 12th, cashing for the first time (first place) on May 16th. I started playing them almost exclusively on June 4th. I stayed there for two months, playing about 70 games in that time and making a profit of about $300 (only at Pacific, I mean). All things considered, I think that I am playing at the right level for the moment.

2 comments:

Anonymous said...

Hi Rob,

I was wondering what the pot odds told you and if they justified going all-in

cheers, Nard

Rob1606 said...

Well, since I had a made hand (three sixes), I didn't really have to care about pot odds... I simply assumed that I was winning at this point, which I think is a reasonable assumption.

Perhaps you meant the pot odds of my opponent. Well, as I wrote in my post, I put him on a flush draw. That would give him about 2:1 odds of completing his flush on the turn or river, making me a 70% favorite. I will take an all-in at those odds anytime.

When it turned out that he actually had two pair, this meant that he only had four outs (to make a full house, I mean), making me something like 85% favorite.

But of course it turned out that the player behind me had QQ, a higher set. This was just extremely bad luck. I don't know what the odds of this happening are, but they are pretty small! Anyway, this has nothing to do with pot oddds. I was expecting him to have nothing and fold, of course.

Finally, another point: when somebody goes all-in on the third hand of an SNG, I know that he is an idiot. If he has got a strong hand, he should be playing to make the pot bigger. If it is not that strong, he should make a reasonable bet and see what happens. There is no possible justification for going all-in at this stage. (Of course I am talking about pushing here, NOT about *calling* an all-in, which can be entirely justified, as it was in this example. I would play it in exactly the same way again.)

My point is that apart from a flush draw, he might well have had AK or some junk like that, so that he would draw dead to the river. Anyway it was clear to me that I was ahead of him, and I just got unlucky.